Trump bests Biden in 6 out of 7 swing states: WSJ poll

Apr 3, 2024 | Political News

A new poll shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in six of the seven most competitive states in the 2024 election.

A new Wall Street Journal poll found that voter “dissatisfaction with the national economy and deep doubts about Biden’s capabilities and job performance” were main contributors of the lead.

According to the poll, Trump is leading between 2 and 8 percentage points in six states—Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina on a ballot that includes third-party and independent candidates. Only in Wisconsin does Biden hold a lead over his predecessor.

The lead holds even when voters were asked to choose only between Trump and Biden.

However, in Wisconsin, Biden leads by 3 points when third-party and independent candidates are factored in. Trump and Biden tie in a head-to-head contest in the state.

The survey was conducted between March 17-24 and included 4,200 voters, 600 in each of the seven states with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points for the full sample and 4 points for results in individual states.

Biden previously won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2020, which had backed Trump in 2016. He won by even narrower margins in Georgia and Arizona, two fast-diversifying states in the South and Southwest where Democrats had long-unfulfilled hopes of victory.

According to the poll, Nevada, which Biden won in 2020 and North Carolina, which backed Trump, are up for grabs.

Negative views of the president’s job performance beat positive views by 16 percentage points or more in the states in play, with four states showing a 20-point gap.

When voters polled were asked to pick which candidate has the better physical and mental fitness to be president, 48 percent backed Trump and 28 percent chose Biden.

Additionally, the poll revealed that Biden “…is having a harder time holding together his 2020 coalition, with declining support among Black, Hispanic and young voters.”

Trump holds a double-digit lead over Biden when voters were asked who can best handle the economy, inflation, and immigration.

Biden still holds the edge as the preferable candidate on abortion.

The poll also showed that swing state voters are more focused on the economy than voters nationwide, with 35 percent citing the economy and inflation as the issues most important to their vote with only 25 percent believing that the economy has improved in the past two years.