The Republican primary’s Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 15, the first chance for voters to determine who they want to represent their party in November's presidential election.
Iowa's January caucuses are a regular tradition for a presidential primary season that – this time around – has been unusually enshrouded in indictments, impeachment inquiries and lawsuits heading into election year.
While the Iowa caucuses provide an opportunity for former President Donald Trump’s Republican challengers to fight for a surprise victory and start a fresh wave of momentum, it appears unlikely they’ll succeed. According to polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight, Trump far outpaces his rivals with 50% support in Iowa as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails in second with 18.4% support.
National polling, including in The Center Square Voters' Voice poll, shows Trump has more support than all of his Republican challengers combined with somewhere in the neighborhood of 62% support.
Trump fares well against President Joe Biden as well. A Morning Consult poll conducted on behalf of Bloomberg News released earlier this month shows Trump leading Biden in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The smallest of those leads is 3 points, with some leads reaching 5 and 6 percentage points, far more than the margin of error for most polls.
Front of mind for those voters is what has been an Achilles heel for Biden: the roughly 20% increase in the price of goods and services in the U.S. since he took office.
“Three in 5 swing-state voters said the cost of everyday goods is most important to their votes next year when specifically thinking about economic issues, higher than any other concern tested,” Morning Consult said. “Over the past three months, the shares of voters in each of the seven states who said they see prices as increasing has declined even as most still see inflation as rising.”
A poll from Monmouth University released earlier this month put Biden’s approval rating at 34%, the lowest figure from Monmouth since Biden took office.
Biden faces mounting evidence that his family members and their business associates engaged in more than $20 million in overseas business selling the “Biden brand” to entities in China, Ukraine, Russia and more. House Oversight Committee Chair Rep. James Comer, who is helping lead the impeachment inquiry into the president, has released bank records and witness testimony as well as copies of checks made out to the president.