Democrats could be in for a big surprise come November. California’s 26th Congressional District has a very real potential to flip from blue to red, according to an OnMessage poll of 400 people conducted recently.
Five-term congresswoman Julia Brownley (D. Calif.) leads Republican opponent Matt Jacobs by a mere 4.8 points. Jacobs is holding a 10-point lead among Independent voters, as reported by The Washington Free Beacon. Poll results state Jacobs is “well-liked and well-positioned to unseat Julia Brownley.”
Brownley’s image rating in the poll shows 34 Favorable and 29 Unfavorable, which is weaker than her standing before the primary. With Independents, Brownley rates 21 Favorable and 25 Unfavorable, with an increase in her unfavorable numbers noted among women and college-educated voters, according to the poll.
That same poll shows Gov. Gavin Newsom’s approval rating tied, with 47 Favorable and 47 Unfavorable. At the same time, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s favorability numbers are in the negative, with 45 Favorable and 48 Unfavorable.
OnMessage noted that the “survey sample is stratified to reflect historical and predictive turnout models.”
One of the big reasons for the GOP's surge in the polls appears to be its support for law enforcement. Gun violence in LA reached a record-high 400 killings in 2021. People are sick of the Left's soft on crime approach. Law Enforcement officers are supporting Jacobs’ efforts to get elected and oust 30-year career politician Brownley.
“Brownley’s anti-police, soft-on-crime policies have made the residents of Ventura County and Los Angeles County less safe,” wrote Jacobs on his website. “The people of our community deserve to be represented by someone who puts the well-being of law-abiding citizens and victims before criminals – someone who values and understands the service and sacrifice of the men and women who protect our community, often at great personal risk.”
Corruption is also apparent among Democrats, with L.A. Councilmember Mark Ridley Thomas indicted on Federal charges for taking bribes when he was on the L.A. County Board of Supervisors. He allegedly directed millions of dollars in public funding to the University of Southern California after taking bribes from one of its Deans.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee publishes a list of members they consider to be “vulnerable” at election time but does not include Brownley in that category. These new poll numbers could have Dems rethinking their strategy and have to commit funds to defend Brownley and try to flip her poll rankings to the positive.
The ONMessage survey concludes, “This survey validates the hopes that this district is a potential flip for Republicans. In fact, it does better than that, it shows Jacobs gaining and Brownley is vulnerable in a district which has voted for Democrats in the past. Brownley’s low name ID, the poor perception of local Democrats, and a tied generic ballot show that this race will continue to be competitive and can narrow in the final stretch.”